State Bracket Preview- MEDAL TOTALS

OK Let me add my 2 cents to this discussion. Overall, of the 56 wrestlers from SE region competing in the state tournament, 21 won their first round matches, which is a winning percentage of 38%. Since there are 16 wrestlers in each bracket, the SE region would expect a 25% win percentage. However this doesn’t take into account the skill level of the opponents, it assumes all wrestlers are equal.  There is really no optimal way to evaluate if a wrestler should win or lose a match at this level, but for the sake of my analysis, I make the assumption that the SE region place-winners are evenly matched with the sample place-winners from other regions. For example the first place winners would be about the same skill level as first place from other regions and so on for the other place winners. For example if our 1^st place winner and the 1^st place winner from any other region were to wrestle 100 matches, you would expect about 50 wins and 50 losses.

With that said, you would expect our first place winners to win nearly every match since they are paired with 3^rd and 4^th place winners from other regions.  Additionally, you would expect our 4^th place finishers to lose every match when paired with 1^st place winners from other regions.

Of SE regions 1^st place winners,  11 of 14 did win their first round matches, or 79% win percentage. The three that lost, lost to 3^rd place winners from other regions. This anomaly could be explained by a relatively weak weight class in our region where the competition wasn’t as good as other regions, or other regions being stacked with better competition. Also, the three that lost in the preliminaries won their first round consolation matches. So I would say of this cohort of wrestlers SE did as expected, or slightly worse than expected, but not by much.

Of the SE region 4^th place finishers, 14 of 14 lost their first round matches as expected. Not much else needs to be said about this group.

The 2^nd and 3^rd place winners from each region should match up fairly evenly with each other. You would expect about a 50% win rate when wrestling other 2/3 place winners, however you would still expect a higher loss percentage when our 3^rd place winner is paired with a 1^st place winner from another region.

Of SE region’s 2^nd place winners, 6 of 14 won their first round matches, or 43% win rate. When the group wrestled other regions 2^nd place winners, they won 4 and lost 6 matches. Against 3^rd place finishers, they were 2 and 2. This is about what you would expect.

Of the SE region’s 3^rd place winners, 4 of 14 won their first round matches, a 29% win rate. When paired with 1^st place finishers this group had 3 wins and 9 losses, which is better than expected. When paired with 2^nd place finishers, they were 1 and 1, which is what you would expect. So this group did slightly better than expected.

In the first consolation round, you would expect most of the wrestlers to be of similar skill level, and thus have close to a 50% win rate. Indeed, SE region won 17 of 35 first round consolation matches, or a 49% win rate. Of this group 3 of 3 first place finishers won (100%),  6 of 8 2^nd place finishers won (75%), 4 of 10 3^rd place finishers won (40%), and 4 of 14 4^th place finishers won (29%).

So, based on my analysis of the first round and first consolation rounds, my assessment would be that the SE region wrestlers are winning at the expected rate and, based on my assumption, our wrestlers are of equal skill level to the skill levels of other regions. So our first ranked wrestlers are beating the 2^nd, 3^rd and 4^th ranked wrestlers from other regions, as expected. And our 3^rd and 4^th ranked wrestlers are losing to the 1^st place winners from other regions. So our region is competitive with other regions of PA.