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dicemen99
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Topic: 2025 Postseason Posted: Feb 02 2025 at 12:40pm |
Now that the calendar has turned to February and most of the wrestlers have dropped to their post season weight classes, let's have some discussion about what is shaping up for D1 AAA to send to Hershey next month.
Caveat - there WILL be injuries and/or other chaos which will give some guys who are listed as having a "puncher's chance" or not even listed into contention for a spot. It happens every year.
107 To me this shapes up as six guys for five spots: Hoffman, Williams, Powell, Kane, Segata & Carr. At first look Hoffman, Williams, Powell & Kane seem to be the first tier, with Segata & Carr battling for 5th although with regional brackets, upsets & injuries you never know the order. I think those six are a clear cut ahead of the rest. Maybe Smith from Avon Grove can sneak in with an injury or upset, but that's about it. I would call it:
LOCK Hoffman
LOOKING VERY GOOD Williams Powell Kane
BATTLING FOR HERSHEY Segata Carr
PUNCHER'S CHANCE Smith
114 Morrison and then a drop off to Tancini, but they are clearly the first tier. Smith and Lee are solidly 3 & 4 for me. Then you have McFadden, Waltenbaugh & Laird I think battling for #5. If something wacky happens the guys who could sneak in may be Waite and Guzzo.
LOCKS Morrison Tancini
LOOKING GOOD Smith Lee
BATTLING FOR HERSHEY McFadden Waltenbaugh Laird
PUNCHER'S CHANCE Waite Guzzo
121 I think you have a clear top 3 with Loss, Szczesniuk & Coleman, then the next two spots are wide open. I think Howell has shown himself to be the best of the rest so far. Wouldn't surprise me if we see someone drop into this weight late (Martinelli?)
LOOKING VERY GOOD Loss Szczesniuk Coleman
BATTLING FOR HERSHEY Howell Parsons Lozano Miniconzi Hunter
PUNCHER'S CHANCE Kramer Vavrek Swartley Robinson (a pinners chance here)
127 Again, a weight someone could drop into and make a difference, this has been a quagmire. McBride should be a lock, but his season has been a bit up & down so far. Maybe Wiechecki with the next best resume. Sigle, Boyer, Von Schmidt filling out the next 3 for me but with no confidence. This weight will be really unpredictable - you have a CR South kid (Riccardi) who is 2-10 who dropped a 1-0 bout to Boyer and pinned another ranked kid Deorio in the 3rd up 3-2. Fogle from Boyertown is 13-15 and hung with most of the kids here. All this to say is this is a weight that is a real wild card. Maybe both the Sigle's drop - it would improve their chances of both making it.
LOCK (kind of) McBride
LOOKING GOOD Wiechecki Sigle Boyer Von Schmidt
PUNCHER'S CHANCE McCoach Hansell Godshall Mallitz Kaplan Deorio Dilella McMillan Catenacci
133 Mutarelli and then a huge dropoff. I think Kane and Dennis are likely to emerge as the next two, although Strickland, Martinelli, Murray are right with them. Maybe Martinelli drops, his results at 133 are not inline with his career. Soto looked like a contender early, but has faded as of late - maybe just freshmen fatigue he will push through. Plant and Sigle are contenders to knock someone off, maybe Diamond as well if a spot opens up.
LOCK Mutarelli
LOOKING GOOD Kane Dennis
BATTLING FOR HERSHEY Strickland Martinelli Murray
PUNCHER'S CHANCE Soto Plant Sigle Diamond
139 Woloshyn and Boyer are in a clear tier above the rest with Warkentine out for the season. The next group is all going to battle it out - Haines, Allgeier, Babb, Richmond, maybe Ramos has put himself here. Then you have a bunch of guys who may be able to beat one of the 2nd tier guys - too many to list but the best are probably Brandt and Bussell.
LOCKS Woloshyn Boyer
BATTLING FOR HERSHEY Haines Allgeier Babb Richmond Ramos
PUNCHER'S CHANCE Brandt Bussell
145 Good weight class with Sement the clear leader, but Kelly and Lengel also a tier above. After those 3, there is another group that I think will battle it out - Stankina, Schaible, Brown, Hibsman, Hayes - for the last two spots. Stankina is probably the best and is in my LOOKING GOOD category, but he has dropped a couple of head scratchers.
LOCKS Sement Kelly Lengel
LOOKING GOOD Stankina
BATTLING FOR HERSHEY Schaible Brown Hibsman Hayes
PUNCHER'S CHANCE O'Donnell Baldesari Jones
152 Another good weight with five guys who are the favorites to go separated into two tiers. Carroll and Knox have separated themselves. O'Brien probably could be in that category, but lasts years postseason gives me pause to put him in a different tier than Delaney and Jaffe. After that you have a very good wrestler in Dykie but he is probably on the outside looking in right now. The dropoff after the top 5 to 6 is significant so the longshot guys probably need an injury or some other chaos to have a shot.
LOCKS Carroll Knox
LOOKING VERY GOOD O'Brien Delaney Jaffe
BATTLING FOR HERSHEY Dykie
160 Gaj is a lock and then you have four guys that are clear favorites to fill the other spots. Almost the same as 152, with Smith, Dennis, Corp, & Brillhart, with Baiyshbekov on the outside looking in. I have a hard time seeing Smith or Dennis not making it. Corp can be in that group, but just dropped and has battled injuries, and Brillhart is a cut above all of the rest. McMonagle & Beckett probably need an injury to battle for the final spot.
LOCKS Gaj Smith
LOOKING VERY GOOD Dennis Corp Brillhart
BATTLING FOR HERSHEY Baiyshbekov
PUNCHER'S CHANCE McMonagle Beckett
172 I think Hostetter and Cole are clearly tier 1. Shumaker is in the next tier and Solomon probably as well, although his schedule makes it hard to really know. The fifth spot looks like a battle between Baldwin, Weldon, Heiser and maybe McDowell.
LOCKS Hostetter Cole
LOOKING VERY GOOD Shumaker Solomon
BATTLING FOR HERSHEY Baldwin Weldon Heiser
PUNCHER'S CHANCE McDowell Rush
189 There should be five clear favorites here but Richards hasn't wrestled here in a while (is he going 215?) and Euker can look like he can win it all at times, but then doesn't and has battled injuries. If Richards, Spielman, Carr, Latorre and Euker are all here, that should be our five, with Hunt on the outside looking in. After that there is a drop to a bunch of guys with probably Larrimore and Clayton being the best of them.
LOCKS Richards Carr Latorre Spielman
LOOKING VERY GOOD Euker
BATTLING FOR HERSHEY Hunt
PUNCHER'S CHANCE Larrimore Clayton
215 This will be a fun weight and could be more fun if Richards joins the fray, there are probably seven kids who could end up in a different order depending on the day. Richards would likely be the favorite if he competes here, although Walker Murray's return has been outstanding and Decker Bechtold just entered the fray. Pachik, Kelly, Prince & Vitelli seem to be the other contenders. After that it seems like a big drop, but with the big guys there is always a chance.
LOCKS Murray
LOOKING GOOD Bechtold Pachik Kelly
BATTLING FOR HERSHEY Vitelli Prince
PUNCHER'S CHANCE Ferrari McCormick Roll
285 Dean Bechtold. That's it. After that I feel like Hudak is probably the next best, although Gessner has had a meteoritic rise this season. But this is 285 and when one TD on a slip in the first period can turn a match - everybody is battling for a spot. So it's Dean Bechtold and then everyone else is battling. I wouldn't be surprised to see one of the 215s come up here and be a favorite to go to Hershey.
LOCK Bechtold
BATTLING FOR HERSHEY Hudak Gessner McKinney Swartz Wright Franks Montgomery Dikenah
PUNCHER'S CHANCE Gonce Ahmad Williams Mains
Edited by dicemen99 - Feb 02 2025 at 8:33pm
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B1Gfan
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Posted: Feb 02 2025 at 12:55pm |
Great preview, thanks!
One person that would be a medal favorite, has not wrestled this year, and that I do not know what happened is Nelson from Ridley. Injured / out for the year?
Edited by B1Gfan - Feb 02 2025 at 12:57pm
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dicemen99
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Posted: Feb 02 2025 at 1:36pm |
B1Gfan wrote:
Great preview, thanks!
One person that would be a medal favorite, has not wrestled this year, and that I do not know what happened is Nelson from Ridley. Injured / out for the year? |
Don't know. I have wondered this myself.
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Tonydehaven
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Posted: Feb 02 2025 at 1:53pm |
â€Thanks for chopping wood carrying waterâ€
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DelcoProper
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Posted: Feb 02 2025 at 2:18pm |
I’ll take the hockey approach
Lower body injury.
B1Gfan wrote:
Great preview, thanks!
One person that would be a medal favorite, has not wrestled this year, and that I do not know what happened is Nelson from Ridley. Injured / out for the year? |
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B1Gfan
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Posted: Feb 02 2025 at 3:29pm |
DelcoProper wrote:
I’ll take the hockey approach
Lower body injury. Â
B1Gfan wrote:
Great preview, thanks!
One person that would be a medal favorite, has not wrestled this year, and that I do not know what happened is Nelson from Ridley. Injured / out for the year? |
| I assume not surfacing for postseason like Kakos did a couple of years ago?
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Dodfan
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Posted: Feb 02 2025 at 6:05pm |
dicemen99 wrote:
B1Gfan wrote:
Great preview, thanks!
One person that would be a medal favorite, has not wrestled this year, and that I do not know what happened is Nelson from Ridley. Injured / out for the year? |
Don't know. I have wondered this myself. |
I think you're missed someone at 215. Alex McGinnis from Springfield is getting better every time he steps on the mat (I admit it, I'm biased). He's either pin or get pinned. This guy is dangerous! He has the best chance to get to Hershey of any Springfield wrestler in a long time.
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dicemen99
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Posted: Feb 02 2025 at 8:21pm |
Dodfan wrote:
dicemen99 wrote:
B1Gfan wrote:
Great preview, thanks!
One person that would be a medal favorite, has not wrestled this year, and that I do not know what happened is Nelson from Ridley. Injured / out for the year? |
Don't know. I have wondered this myself. |
I think you're missed someone at 215. Alex McGinnis from Springfield is getting better every time he steps on the mat (I admit it, I'm biased). He's either pin or get pinned. This guy is dangerous! He has the best chance to get to Hershey of any Springfield wrestler in a long time. |
McGinnis would have been the next one listed in "puncher's chance." TBH, there are a lot of guys you could list at that weight, but there's probably a clear drop off after Vitelli/Prince.
Edited by dicemen99 - Feb 02 2025 at 8:22pm
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Low Single
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Posted: Feb 03 2025 at 12:38pm |
Nice write up dicemen99. Would Martinelli have had to weigh in 2 lbs over 123 already to be able to make the cut for post season or does he still have time? I forget what the decent requirements are. He looks out of place at 133 even though he could still make it to states at that weight?
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dicemen99
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Posted: Feb 03 2025 at 1:55pm |
Low Single wrote:
Nice write up dicemen99. Would Martinelli have had to weigh in 2 lbs over 123 already to be able to make the cut for post season or does he still have time? I forget what the decent requirements are. He looks out of place at 133 even though he could still make it to states at that weight? |
Don't take this as gospel, as I'm just doing the figures off the top of my head but Pennridge's last weigh-in was January 29th. I think the final day for calculations is February 19th (maybe?) so that is exactly 21 days.
He would have probably need to have weighed in under 127.75 to be eligible at 122 if that is the case.
Again - just roughing the numbers.
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mo bloodyoung
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Posted: Feb 03 2025 at 7:19pm |
Great work, Dice.
To kind of see where all the ranked kids are coming from and who will have the toughest challenges reaching regionals, here they are broken up in the three sections.
106 North Central South Williams Stanchak Hoffman Powell Tomczak Carr Kane Smith Segata Borzio Franscella Ramos
114 North Central South Morrison Tancini McFarlane McFadden Smith Laird Waltenbaugh Lee Waite
121 North Central South Loss Coleman Sigle Hunter Lozano Sczcesniuk Sanders Costanzo Howell Swartley Vavrek Miniconzi Evans Kramer Robinson Parsons Burns
127 North Central South McBride Wiechecki Boyer Von Schmidt Godshall Deorio Mancini
133 North Central South Mutarelli Soto Strickland Martinelli Murray Sigle Kane Diamond Dennis Plant Staub
139 North Central South Woloshyn Babb Boyer Allgeier Brandt Richmond Ramos Bussell Haines Carroll
145 North Central South Sement Stankina Lengel Kelly Hayes Schaible Hibsman O'Donnell Brown Metzler Jones
152 North Central South Carroll Knox Delaney O'Brien Dykie Jaffe Mallon Dellarocca Bostwick Mogaji
160 North Central South Gaj Stouch Smith Dennis Jones Corp Brillhart McMonagle Baiyshbekov Beckett
172 North Central South Cole Shumaker Hostetter Solomon Heiser Weldon Gordon Baldwin Rush
189 North Central South Clayton Euker Carr Richards Spielman Griffin Latorre Larrimore Hunt
215 North Central South Murray Pachik Kelly Prince Bechtold Vitelli Dumin Ferrari
285 North Central South Swartz Bechtold McKinney Wright Hudak Dikenah Gessner Franks Williams Gonce Montgomery Mains Palmeiro
Edited by mo bloodyoung - Feb 04 2025 at 8:17am
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tilts
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Posted: Feb 04 2025 at 8:18am |
What is the break down to qualify for regionals? Top 5 each district, 15 man bracket, 1 seed bye?
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DelcoProper
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Posted: Feb 04 2025 at 8:34am |
I believe top 6 qualify, first round at regions would be true elimination pigtails.
tilts wrote:
What is the break down to qualify for regionals? Top 5 each district, 15 man bracket, 1 seed bye? |
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MTLeister
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Posted: Feb 04 2025 at 11:26am |
tilts wrote:
What is the break down to qualify for regionals? Top 5 each district, 15 man bracket, 1 seed bye? |
Top 6 qualify from each section to form an 18-man bracket. 2 pigtails per weight... loser is out. Full consolations from the round of 16.
Then top 5 advance to states.
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Lions
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Posted: Feb 04 2025 at 11:54am |
Are Regionals brackets seeded all the way out to 18 places and if so, what formula is used?
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Chinwhipped
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Posted: Feb 04 2025 at 12:01pm |
Lions wrote:
Are Regionals brackets seeded all the way out to 18 places and if so, what formula is used? |
My understanding is the 5th and 6th place district finishers are automatically in the single elimination pigtail round regardless of where they fall against higher placers via the formula. But I suppose the formula may apply relative to seeding the pigtails only.
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legalizefullnelson
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Posted: Feb 04 2025 at 12:27pm |
Chinwhipped wrote:
Lions wrote:
Are Regionals brackets seeded all the way out to 18 places and if so, what formula is used? |
My understanding is the 5th and 6th place district finishers are automatically in the single elimination pigtail round regardless of where they fall against higher placers via the formula. But I suppose the formula may apply relative to seeding the pigtails only.
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If that's the case, meaning 3rd and 4th place finishers are exempt from pigtail regardless of seeding points, then the two pigtail matches would include all three 6th place finishers plus the lowest seeded 5th place finisher.
But if you go by straight seeding criteria, then conceivably (though not probably) the 3rd through 6th place finishers from a single district tournament could be in the pigtail round.
Edited by legalizefullnelson - Feb 04 2025 at 12:33pm
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Chinwhipped
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Posted: Feb 04 2025 at 12:46pm |
legalizefullnelson wrote:
Chinwhipped wrote:
Lions wrote:
Are Regionals brackets seeded all the way out to 18 places and if so, what formula is used? |
My understanding is the 5th and 6th place district finishers are automatically in the single elimination pigtail round regardless of where they fall against higher placers via the formula. But I suppose the formula may apply relative to seeding the pigtails only.
|
If that's the case, meaning 3rd and 4th place finishers are exempt from pigtail regardless of seeding points, then the two pigtail matches would include all three 6th place finishers plus the lowest seeded 5th place finisher.
But if you go by straight seeding criteria, then conceivably (though not probably) the 3rd through 6th place finishers from a single district tournament could be in the pigtail round.
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Its hard to say. Maybe they will update the Region seeding guidelines to reflect the change from four sections with four qualifiers each to three sections with six qualifers each.
I think I was incorrect in assuming the pigtails would be restricted to 5th and 6th place finishers. It's probably just the bottom four wresters by formula calculation that would fall into the pigtail. So in the case where a section has a weak weight class relative to the other two sections then 3 to 6 place finishers from one section could wind up in the pigtail match.
Edited by Chinwhipped - Feb 04 2025 at 2:15pm
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No offense intended, none taken
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Low Single
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Posted: Feb 04 2025 at 1:27pm |
MTLeister wrote:
tilts wrote:
What is the break down to qualify for regionals? Top 5 each district, 15 man bracket, 1 seed bye? |
Top 6 qualify from each section to form an 18-man bracket. 2 pigtails per weight... loser is out. Full consolations from the round of 16.
Then top 5 advance to states. |
Where can you find the new Section team alignments? I wasn't aware this changed from 4 to 3
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Lions
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Posted: Feb 04 2025 at 1:35pm |
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