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    Posted: Feb 02 2025 at 12:40pm
Now that the calendar has turned to February and most of the wrestlers have dropped to their post season weight classes, let's have some discussion about what is shaping up for D1 AAA to send to Hershey next month.

Caveat - there WILL be injuries and/or other chaos which will give some guys who are listed as having a "puncher's chance" or not even listed into contention for a spot. It happens every year.

107
To me this shapes up as six guys for five spots: Hoffman, Williams, Powell, Kane, Segata & Carr. At first look Hoffman, Williams, Powell & Kane seem to be the first tier, with Segata & Carr battling for 5th although with regional brackets, upsets & injuries you never know the order. I think those six are a clear cut ahead of the rest. Maybe Smith from Avon Grove can sneak in with an injury or upset, but that's about it. I would call it:

LOCK
Hoffman 

LOOKING VERY GOOD
Williams
Powell
Kane

BATTLING FOR HERSHEY
Segata
Carr

PUNCHER'S CHANCE
Smith

114
Morrison and then a drop off to Tancini, but they are clearly the first tier. Smith and Lee are solidly 3 & 4 for me. Then you have McFadden, Waltenbaugh & Laird I think battling for #5. If something wacky happens the guys who could sneak in may be Waite and Guzzo.

LOCKS
Morrison
Tancini

LOOKING GOOD
Smith
Lee

BATTLING FOR HERSHEY
McFadden
Waltenbaugh
Laird

PUNCHER'S CHANCE
Waite
Guzzo

121
I think you have a clear top 3 with Loss, Szczesniuk & Coleman, then the next two spots are wide open. I think Howell has shown himself to be the best of the rest so far. Wouldn't surprise me if we see someone drop into this weight late (Martinelli?)

LOOKING VERY GOOD
Loss
Szczesniuk
Coleman

BATTLING FOR HERSHEY
Howell
Parsons
Lozano
Miniconzi
Hunter

PUNCHER'S CHANCE
Kramer
Vavrek
Swartley
Robinson (a pinners chance here)

127
Again, a weight someone could drop into and make a difference, this has been a quagmire. McBride should be a lock, but his season has been a bit up & down so far. Maybe Wiechecki with the next best resume. Sigle, Boyer, Von Schmidt filling out the next 3 for me but with no confidence. This weight will be really unpredictable - you have a CR South kid (Riccardi) who is 2-10 who dropped a 1-0 bout to Boyer and pinned another ranked kid Deorio in the 3rd up 3-2. Fogle from Boyertown is 13-15 and hung with most of the kids here. All this to say is this is a weight that is a real wild card. Maybe both the Sigle's drop - it would improve their chances of both making it.

LOCK (kind of)
McBride

LOOKING GOOD
Wiechecki
Sigle
Boyer
Von Schmidt

PUNCHER'S CHANCE
McCoach
Hansell
Godshall
Mallitz
Kaplan
Deorio
Dilella
McMillan
Catenacci

133
Mutarelli and then a huge dropoff. I think Kane and Dennis are likely to emerge as the next two, although Strickland, Martinelli, Murray are right with them. Maybe Martinelli drops, his results at 133 are not inline with his career. Soto looked like a contender early, but has faded as of late - maybe just freshmen fatigue he will push through. Plant and Sigle are contenders to knock someone off, maybe Diamond as well if a spot opens up.

LOCK
Mutarelli

LOOKING GOOD
Kane
Dennis

BATTLING FOR HERSHEY
Strickland
Martinelli
Murray

PUNCHER'S CHANCE
Soto
Plant
Sigle
Diamond

139
Woloshyn and Boyer are in a clear tier above the rest with Warkentine out for the season. The next group is all going to battle it out - Haines, Allgeier, Babb, Richmond, maybe Ramos has put himself here. Then you have a bunch of guys who may be able to beat one of the 2nd tier guys - too many to list but the best are probably Brandt and Bussell.

LOCKS
Woloshyn
Boyer

BATTLING FOR HERSHEY
Haines
Allgeier
Babb
Richmond
Ramos

PUNCHER'S CHANCE
Brandt
Bussell

145
Good weight class with Sement the clear leader, but Kelly and Lengel also a tier above. After those 3, there is another group that I think will battle it out - Stankina, Schaible, Brown, Hibsman, Hayes - for the last two spots. Stankina is probably the best and is in my LOOKING GOOD category, but he has dropped a couple of head scratchers.

LOCKS
Sement
Kelly
Lengel

LOOKING GOOD
Stankina

BATTLING FOR HERSHEY
Schaible
Brown
Hibsman
Hayes

PUNCHER'S CHANCE
O'Donnell
Baldesari
Jones

152
Another good weight with five guys who are the favorites to go separated into two tiers. Carroll and Knox have separated themselves. O'Brien probably could be in that category, but lasts years postseason gives me pause to put him in a different tier than Delaney and Jaffe. After that you have a very good wrestler in Dykie but he is probably on the outside looking in right now. The dropoff after the top 5 to 6 is significant so the longshot guys probably need an injury or some other chaos to have a shot.

LOCKS
Carroll
Knox

LOOKING VERY GOOD
O'Brien
Delaney
Jaffe

BATTLING FOR HERSHEY
Dykie

160
Gaj is a lock and then you have four guys that are clear favorites to fill the other spots. Almost the same as 152, with Smith, Dennis, Corp, & Brillhart, with Baiyshbekov on the outside looking in. I have a hard time seeing Smith or Dennis not making it. Corp can be in that group, but just dropped and has battled injuries, and Brillhart is a cut above all of the rest.  McMonagle & Beckett probably need an injury to battle for the final spot.

LOCKS
Gaj
Smith

LOOKING VERY GOOD
Dennis
Corp
Brillhart

BATTLING FOR HERSHEY
Baiyshbekov

PUNCHER'S CHANCE
McMonagle
Beckett

172
I think Hostetter and Cole are clearly tier 1. Shumaker is in the next tier and Solomon probably as well, although his schedule makes it hard to really know. The fifth spot looks like a battle between Baldwin, Weldon, Heiser and maybe McDowell.

LOCKS
Hostetter
Cole

LOOKING VERY GOOD
Shumaker
Solomon

BATTLING FOR HERSHEY
Baldwin
Weldon
Heiser

PUNCHER'S CHANCE
McDowell
Rush

189
There should be five clear favorites here but Richards hasn't wrestled here in a while (is he going 215?) and Euker can look like he can win it all at times, but then doesn't and has battled injuries. If Richards, Spielman, Carr, Latorre and Euker are all here, that should be our five, with Hunt on the outside looking in. After that there is a drop to a bunch of guys with probably Larrimore and Clayton being the best of them.

LOCKS
Richards
Carr
Latorre
Spielman

LOOKING VERY GOOD
Euker

BATTLING FOR HERSHEY
Hunt

PUNCHER'S CHANCE
Larrimore
Clayton

215
This will be a fun weight and could be more fun if Richards joins the fray, there are probably seven kids who could end up in a different order depending on the day. Richards would likely be the favorite if he competes here, although Walker Murray's return has been outstanding and Decker Bechtold just entered the fray. Pachik, Kelly, Prince & Vitelli seem to be the other contenders. After that it seems like a big drop, but with the big guys there is always a chance.

LOCKS
Murray

LOOKING GOOD
Bechtold
Pachik
Kelly

BATTLING FOR HERSHEY
Vitelli
Prince

PUNCHER'S CHANCE
Ferrari
McCormick
Roll

285
Dean Bechtold. That's it. After that I feel like Hudak is probably the next best, although Gessner has had a meteoritic rise this season. But this is 285 and when one TD on a slip in the first period can turn a match - everybody is battling for a spot. So it's Dean Bechtold and then everyone else is battling. I wouldn't be surprised to see one of the 215s come up here and be a favorite to go to Hershey.

LOCK
Bechtold

BATTLING FOR HERSHEY
Hudak
Gessner
McKinney
Swartz
Wright
Franks
Montgomery
Dikenah

PUNCHER'S CHANCE
Gonce
Ahmad
Williams
Mains




Edited by dicemen99 - Feb 02 2025 at 8:33pm
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B1Gfan View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote B1Gfan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Feb 02 2025 at 12:55pm
Great preview, thanks!

One person that would be a medal favorite, has not wrestled this year, and that I do not know what happened is Nelson from Ridley. Injured / out for the year?

Edited by B1Gfan - Feb 02 2025 at 12:57pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dicemen99 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Feb 02 2025 at 1:36pm
Originally posted by B1Gfan B1Gfan wrote:

Great preview, thanks!

One person that would be a medal favorite, has not wrestled this year, and that I do not know what happened is Nelson from Ridley. Injured / out for the year?

Don't know. I have wondered this myself.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DelcoProper Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Feb 02 2025 at 2:18pm
I’ll take the hockey approach

Lower body injury.  

Originally posted by B1Gfan B1Gfan wrote:

Great preview, thanks!

One person that would be a medal favorite, has not wrestled this year, and that I do not know what happened is Nelson from Ridley. Injured / out for the year?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote B1Gfan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Feb 02 2025 at 3:29pm
Originally posted by DelcoProper DelcoProper wrote:

I’ll take the hockey approach

Lower body injury.  

Originally posted by B1Gfan B1Gfan wrote:

Great preview, thanks!

One person that would be a medal favorite, has not wrestled this year, and that I do not know what happened is Nelson from Ridley. Injured / out for the year?



I assume not surfacing for postseason like Kakos did a couple of years ago?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dodfan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Feb 02 2025 at 6:05pm
Originally posted by dicemen99 dicemen99 wrote:

Originally posted by B1Gfan B1Gfan wrote:

Great preview, thanks!

One person that would be a medal favorite, has not wrestled this year, and that I do not know what happened is Nelson from Ridley. Injured / out for the year?

Don't know. I have wondered this myself.

I think you're missed someone at 215. Alex McGinnis from Springfield is getting better every time he steps on the mat (I admit it, I'm biased). He's either pin or get pinned. This guy is dangerous! He has the best chance to get to Hershey of any Springfield wrestler in a long time. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dicemen99 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Feb 02 2025 at 8:21pm
Originally posted by Dodfan Dodfan wrote:

Originally posted by dicemen99 dicemen99 wrote:

Originally posted by B1Gfan B1Gfan wrote:

Great preview, thanks!

One person that would be a medal favorite, has not wrestled this year, and that I do not know what happened is Nelson from Ridley. Injured / out for the year?

Don't know. I have wondered this myself.

I think you're missed someone at 215. Alex McGinnis from Springfield is getting better every time he steps on the mat (I admit it, I'm biased). He's either pin or get pinned. This guy is dangerous! He has the best chance to get to Hershey of any Springfield wrestler in a long time. 

McGinnis would have been the next one listed in "puncher's chance." TBH, there are a lot of guys you could list at that weight, but there's probably a clear drop off after Vitelli/Prince.


Edited by dicemen99 - Feb 02 2025 at 8:22pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Low Single Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Feb 03 2025 at 12:38pm
Nice write up dicemen99.  Would Martinelli have had to weigh in 2 lbs over 123 already to be able to make the cut for post season or does he still have time?  I forget what the decent requirements are.  He looks out of place at 133 even though he could still make it to states at that weight?  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dicemen99 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Feb 03 2025 at 1:55pm
Originally posted by Low Single Low Single wrote:

Nice write up dicemen99.  Would Martinelli have had to weigh in 2 lbs over 123 already to be able to make the cut for post season or does he still have time?  I forget what the decent requirements are.  He looks out of place at 133 even though he could still make it to states at that weight?  

Don't take this as gospel, as I'm just doing the figures off the top of my head but Pennridge's last weigh-in was January 29th. I think the final day for calculations is February 19th (maybe?) so that is exactly 21 days. 

He would have probably need to have weighed in under 127.75 to be eligible at 122 if that is the case.

Again - just roughing the numbers.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote mo bloodyoung Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Feb 03 2025 at 7:19pm
Great work, Dice. 

To kind of see where all the ranked kids are coming from and who will have the toughest challenges reaching regionals, here they are broken up in the three sections.

106
North Central South

Williams        Stanchak Hoffman

Powell Tomczak Carr

Kane Smith

Segata

Borzio

Franscella

Ramos


114

North Central South

Morrison        Tancini McFarlane

McFadden Smith Laird

Waltenbaugh Lee

       Waite


121

North Central South

Loss Coleman Sigle

Hunter Lozano Sczcesniuk

Sanders        Costanzo Howell

Swartley         Vavrek Miniconzi

Evans Kramer Robinson

        Parsons

       Burns


127

North Central South

McBride       Wiechecki Boyer

Von Schmidt Godshall Deorio

Mancini


133

North Central South

Mutarelli         Soto Strickland

Martinelli         Murray Sigle

Kane Diamond

Dennis Plant

Staub


139

North Central South

Woloshyn Babb Boyer

Allgeier         Brandt Richmond

Ramos Bussell Haines

        Carroll


145

North Central South

Sement         Stankina Lengel

Kelly Hayes Schaible

Hibsman         O'Donnell

Brown

Metzler

Jones


152

North Central South

Carroll Knox Delaney

O'Brien         Dykie Jaffe

Mallon Dellarocca

        Bostwick

        Mogaji


160

North Central South

Gaj         Stouch Smith

Dennis Jones Corp

Brillhart        McMonagle

Baiyshbekov

Beckett


172

North Central South

Cole         Shumaker Hostetter

Solomon          Heiser Weldon

Gordon          Baldwin

       Rush


189

North Central South

Clayton        Euker Carr

       Richards Spielman

      Griffin Latorre

      Larrimore Hunt


215

North Central South

Murray Pachik Kelly

Prince Bechtold Vitelli

        Dumin Ferrari



285

North Central South

Swartz Bechtold McKinney

Wright Hudak Dikenah

Gessner         Franks Williams

Gonce Montgomery Mains

Palmeiro



Edited by mo bloodyoung - Feb 04 2025 at 8:17am
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What is the break down to qualify for regionals? Top 5 each district, 15 man bracket, 1 seed bye?
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I believe top 6 qualify, first round at regions would be true elimination pigtails.

Originally posted by tilts tilts wrote:

What is the break down to qualify for regionals? Top 5 each district, 15 man bracket, 1 seed bye?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MTLeister Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Feb 04 2025 at 11:26am
Originally posted by tilts tilts wrote:

What is the break down to qualify for regionals? Top 5 each district, 15 man bracket, 1 seed bye?

Top 6 qualify from each section to form an 18-man bracket.  2 pigtails per weight... loser is out.  Full consolations from the round of 16.

Then top 5 advance to states.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Lions Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Feb 04 2025 at 11:54am
Are Regionals brackets seeded all the way out to 18 places and if so, what formula is used?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Chinwhipped Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Feb 04 2025 at 12:01pm
Originally posted by Lions Lions wrote:

Are Regionals brackets seeded all the way out to 18 places and if so, what formula is used?


My understanding is the 5th and 6th place district finishers are automatically in the single elimination pigtail round regardless of where they fall against higher placers via the formula.  But I suppose the formula may apply relative to seeding the pigtails only.

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Originally posted by Chinwhipped Chinwhipped wrote:

Originally posted by Lions Lions wrote:

Are Regionals brackets seeded all the way out to 18 places and if so, what formula is used?


My understanding is the 5th and 6th place district finishers are automatically in the single elimination pigtail round regardless of where they fall against higher placers via the formula.  But I suppose the formula may apply relative to seeding the pigtails only.


If that's the case, meaning 3rd and 4th place finishers are exempt from pigtail regardless of seeding points, then the two pigtail matches would include all three 6th place finishers plus the lowest seeded 5th place finisher.  

But if you go by straight seeding criteria, then conceivably (though not probably) the 3rd through 6th place finishers from a single district tournament could be in the pigtail round.


Edited by legalizefullnelson - Feb 04 2025 at 12:33pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Chinwhipped Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Feb 04 2025 at 12:46pm
Originally posted by legalizefullnelson legalizefullnelson wrote:

Originally posted by Chinwhipped Chinwhipped wrote:

Originally posted by Lions Lions wrote:

Are Regionals brackets seeded all the way out to 18 places and if so, what formula is used?


My understanding is the 5th and 6th place district finishers are automatically in the single elimination pigtail round regardless of where they fall against higher placers via the formula.  But I suppose the formula may apply relative to seeding the pigtails only.


If that's the case, meaning 3rd and 4th place finishers are exempt from pigtail regardless of seeding points, then the two pigtail matches would include all three 6th place finishers plus the lowest seeded 5th place finisher.  

But if you go by straight seeding criteria, then conceivably (though not probably) the 3rd through 6th place finishers from a single district tournament could be in the pigtail round.

Its hard to say.  Maybe they will update the Region seeding guidelines to reflect the change from four sections with four qualifiers each to three sections with six qualifers each.  

I think I was incorrect in assuming the pigtails would be restricted to 5th and 6th place finishers.  It's probably just the bottom four wresters by formula calculation that would fall into the pigtail.  So in the case where a section has a weak weight class relative to the other two sections then 3 to 6 place finishers from one section could wind up in the pigtail match.  


Edited by Chinwhipped - Feb 04 2025 at 2:15pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Low Single Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Feb 04 2025 at 1:27pm
Originally posted by MTLeister MTLeister wrote:

Originally posted by tilts tilts wrote:

What is the break down to qualify for regionals? Top 5 each district, 15 man bracket, 1 seed bye?

Top 6 qualify from each section to form an 18-man bracket.  2 pigtails per weight... loser is out.  Full consolations from the round of 16.

Then top 5 advance to states.

Where can you find the new Section team alignments?  I wasn't aware this changed from 4 to 3


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