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Stats on forfeits

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    Posted: Jun 12 2019 at 4:38pm
On Saturday, I posted these stats tables to both Twitter and Facebook and got a lot of discussions there.  For anyone who isn't on either of those platforms, I figured it would be good to post them here as well.









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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MTLeister Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Jun 12 2019 at 5:01pm
I'm going to try to check on other statistics as well.

I don't quite have a chart yet for these (all are based on last year's results) but...
90 PIAA teams didn't have a 106 in any of their dual meets (that's 19%)
52 were AA (23%) and 38 were AAA (15%)
56 PIAA teams didn't have a 113 in any of their dual meets (that's 12%)
34 were AA (15%) and 22 were AAA (9%)
40 PIAA teams didn't have a 120 in any of their dual meets (that's 8%)
30 were AA (13%) and 10 were AAA (4%)
The next "worst" weights were 220 with 28 PIAA teams and 285 with 27 PIAA teams.

What I'd like to figure out next is how many dual meets were those 90 teams involved in... and what percentage of the duals without a 106 does that account for.  I'm curious, does that account for 50% of all the duals without a 106 match... 75%... 90%?  What does it look like for the others weights?

Also working up stats like, how many teams had a 106 in less than 20% (or some other percentage) of their duals?  Then do that for each weight, and split AA vs AAA.

If anyone has any ideas for stats that I might be able to look up, please suggest them and I'll see what I can do.  I do not have any actual weigh-in data so anything I can do would have to be based on results (for duals or tourneys).

EDIT: corrected AA and AAA percentages from what was originally posted.


Edited by MTLeister - Jun 13 2019 at 7:44pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MTLeister Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Jun 13 2019 at 7:48pm
Tables showing some of the stats I mentioned above... numbers of teams that had no one in ANY their duals at each weight, and also teams that had no one in less than 20% of their duals.  Listed the last 3 seasons.  Also listed all PIAA teams along with splits for AA and AAA.

For each stat, the redder the block, the higher it is for that year.

Perhaps this isn't a great stat but it does seem to show that teams have a harder time filling those 2 or even 3 lightest weights.  Also shows that it's slightly getting better though just barely.

If the graphic is hard to read, try clicking this link.






Edited by MTLeister - Jun 13 2019 at 7:49pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote idontknow Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Jun 17 2019 at 11:01am
What happens when you filter out schools that average 6 or more forfeits a dual meet? If a school has 6 or more forfeits the program is not very strong and the issue probably isn't the kids but more the program.
But what do I know
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote MTLeister Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Jun 17 2019 at 4:49pm
Originally posted by idontknow idontknow wrote:

What happens when you filter out schools that average 6 or more forfeits a dual meet? If a school has 6 or more forfeits the program is not very strong and the issue probably isn't the kids but more the program.

I'm hoping to do some work with that soon to see if just a few schools are causing most of the numbers to skew in one direction. Not sure if it'll be like the 80-20 rule...like having 20% of the schools contributing to 80% of the forfeits.

If I remember correctly when I did that a year or two ago, it wasn't that bad actually.

There are certainly more schools WITH a problem with forfeits than there are schools with no problem.  But I'll see what I can find.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ancienthatteroldram Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Jun 17 2019 at 9:12pm
I suspect you will not  find that a mere  20% of the schools contribute to 80% of the problem. That finding would in fact be a positive sign. I fear the virus has metastasized - forfeits are not confined to a few wrestling programs.  Sincerely hope I'm wrong.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Berwyn Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Jun 18 2019 at 12:19am
Cut four weight classes and put more emphasize on girls wrestling. The sooner the better off wrestling will be in the long term. Look at it like a business trimming the fat to put more focus on sales.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote mo bloodyoung Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Jun 18 2019 at 8:42am
Originally posted by Berwyn Berwyn wrote:

Cut four weight classes and put more emphasize on girls wrestling. The sooner the better off wrestling will be in the long term. Look at it like a business trimming the fat to put more focus on sales.

What does girls wrestling have to do with forfeits on the boys side? You think there's deteriorating interest in boys wrestling, just imagine the crickets watching a girls dual. Getting rid of a 1/3 of the weights sounds like a terrible idea too.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ancienthatteroldram Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Jun 18 2019 at 3:35pm
mo: our friend Berwyn is fixated on the supposed benefits freestyle and girls wrestling will impart on high school wrestling.
By virtue of persistent advocacy , well meaning people, not unlike him, can't in their wildest dreams imagine that a positive correlation might exist between the emphasis on girls wrestling- surely an endeavor undertaken with the best of intentions- and the concomitant decline in boys wrestling. It is simply considered  heretical to even entertain that notion. To most observers it seems counter-intuitive at best, and to many sexist and misogynistic to be sure.  At 73 I have too often seen seemingly benign motives derailed by the law of unintended consequences. The aphorism about a certain road always being paved with good intentions is in this instance rather appropriate.
It seems to me rather obvious, that our leading opinion shapers, our nations commentariat, our educational elites, are anxious that we not raise another generation of males infested with the poison of toxic masculinity-however loosely defined. At the same time we are encouraged to raise a new generation of empowered females, no longer chaffing under male oppression. By way of antidote we have allowed to be created amongst our young males, a large and growing cohort of "girly men"; of sensitive beta males anxiously deferential to whatever new mode of virtue signaling emasculation happens to wander down the ideological pike.
Now many of you will cite anecdotal evidence of young virile men still exhibiting all the old virtues of character. These examples are of course superseded by the myriad of counter-examples popular culture dispenses without pause. In our advertising what is more ubiquitous than the bumbling fool of a father corrected by the wise female. Virility has become a dirty word, masculinity a synonym for brutish Neanderthal.
Encouraging females to enter into every traditionally male sphere , might not be the beginning of a new wonderful age of enlightenment , but rather a closing -a declension of a passing age. I don't expect high school wrestling as we know it, to survive another 20 or so years. We are re-arranging deck chairs on the Titanic, but on the other hand the very youngest of Generation Z might well surprise.
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oldcougar Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Jun 18 2019 at 4:55pm
oldhatter: look at the bright side. If climate scientists are to be believed, most of us will be dead in 20 years anyway, so who's going to be around to mourn the demise of wrestling?

Girl's wrestling is no reflection on boy's wrestling, imho. Two seperate sports, just like lacrosse, basketball, tennis, etc.  If a boy feels his masculinity is being challanged by the existence of girl's wrestling, he has no masculinity to challange.

I'm in for whatever sane ideas are offered to improve wrestling's lot. Cutting half the weight classes sounds pretty drastic to me. Not just drastic, but self destructive. It will hurry along the end of our sport.

I watch a little freestyle, Berwyn. Just enough to know that I don't want it contaminating real wrestling.

True Wrestling lovers: download all the high school and college wrestling videos that you can. Back them up so they are easily retrievable. In the future you can dig them out in fond rememberance of when there was a great sport called folkstyle wrestling.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ancienthatteroldram Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Jun 18 2019 at 5:42pm
OC: I did not mean to imply, nor state, that a boys masculinity is being challenged by the advent and existence of girls wrestling. I'm saying that influential segments of our society are attacking the very concept of masculinity as an undesirable quality that needs to be eradicated. Girls wrestling or no, this attempt at creating a new, kinder, gentler, more sensitive male persona will in and of itself lead to declining number of males participating in the sport of wrestling. Like it or not, the sport requires and attracts those with a certain amount of macho, a certain element of virility and aggressiveness . Eliminate those qualities from the participating demographics and you get what we are now seeing- declining numbers. The growth or existence of girls wrestling is not a cause of our declining numbers. If girls wrestling did not exist, boys wrestling would still see declining  numbers.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oldcougar Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Jun 18 2019 at 6:27pm

I agree that if girls wrestling did not exist boys wrestling would still be in decline. The two sports are unrelated.

As for your other assertion, I personally was always a kind, gentler kinda guy. But when they put someone in front of me on a mat, I kicked the crap out of them.  No different today.

I'm amused at every generation that complains about the next generation not being as hard, as strong, as smart, as industrius, as---blah blah blah.

Kids are the same as they've always been, but they have many more choices. What could you do in the winter when you were in high school?  Play round ball or wrestle. Now the list is so long, those two choices hardly make it on there.  That's wrestling's problem. Not some imagined change in the children.



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Berwyn Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Jun 18 2019 at 6:56pm
10/14=71.4 weight classes left. Girls wrestling is growing double digits lets keep the momentum. This has nothing to do with boy girl issues. Wrestling is the best martial art to learn for defending yourself without hurting your workout partners during practice because there is no striking.

There are a ton of playing fields for soccer lax etc but wrestling space is limited. Look at CA WA CT MI TX & copy what they did to start out like maybe in beginning boys & girls practice together. I'm no expert in scholastic sports but I do know that Conestoga had Bush Weeks Heim go pro in different sports. Wrestling will help girls get better at their main sports plus unbelievable opportunity for girls to grab scholarships with the way NWCA pushing for more NCAA women programs AKA Crew in the Ivies.


Edited by Berwyn - Jun 18 2019 at 7:03pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ancienthatteroldram Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Jun 18 2019 at 7:28pm
OC: It is not a change in the children, but the changes forced or forged upon them. And the list of winter options is not much longer today than it was years ago. Apart from round ball, wrestling , ice hockey, skiing and swimming/diving, the other sports options, and there are certainly many, open to high schoolers in winter are only warm weather sports moved indoors because adults have decided that to excel in a sport, its young need to participate year around. 
As to generational carping, actually the opposite of what passes for conventional wisdom is true: every generation has not complained that the next generation is not as hard, strong etc as the present one. At least since what we call the Enlightenment it has been an article of faith that progress is part and parcel of the human condition and we, collectively and individually, are getting better and better, wiser and wiser. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ancienthatteroldram Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Jun 18 2019 at 7:35pm
Berwyn: This opportunistic attitude is the death of amateur sports. To engage in a sport not for the love of the sport itself , but participate for the opportunity to "grab" a piece of the pie.

Edited by ancienthatteroldram - Jun 18 2019 at 7:35pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Berwyn Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Jun 18 2019 at 10:54pm
The way I chose a sport was by who was coaching the sport rather than the sport itself.

Edited by Berwyn - Jun 19 2019 at 9:05am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ancienthatteroldram Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Jun 19 2019 at 7:43am
Brrr: You must be the one in a million child who chose to play T-ball and Little League based on who was on the coaching staff; and no doubt the child who eschewed participating in football or whatever, because the coach was not to your liking.

Edited by ancienthatteroldram - Jun 19 2019 at 8:08am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote idontknow Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Jun 19 2019 at 10:16am
AHOR: While I usually see things from a different perspective then you do, I agree with your first assessment as to why we are seeing a decline in male wrestling. I also agree with you that female wrestling is a different sport.

I do agree with Berwyn that freestyle is a fun form of wrestling to participate in and watch (nothing better than a 5 point throw). However, if HS had Freestyle wrestling we would eliminate all the threads about stall calls. But that is just opinion.

Your assessment on kids eschewing a sport or team because the coach is not of their liking is way off however. There are tons of kids that don't play or stop playing a sport because of the coach. An example is that one of my sons recently decided to stop playing football because he cant stand the coach. He has had 2 other fiends stop playing and another transfer to a private school for the same reason. The same thing holds true for wrestling. When players love a coach they will do anything for that coach and will want to be on their team. Same thing holds true in the professional workplace. So I am not sure why you are assailing Berwyn for something that happens in both the sports world and the work world.
But what do I know
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ancienthatteroldram Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Jun 19 2019 at 1:54pm
idk: I'm not sure "assailing" is the appropriate verb, but am convinced that kids "eschewing a sport because of the coach" is not a common occurrence. It was certainly not a common occurrence  when I was going thru the youth to high school programs. I'm certain it happens both in sports and in the workplace, and many anecdotal stories- yours included- seem to confirm that notion. Nevertheless, I would guess that even today, these type of "voluntary separations" are not at all that common. Of course there are semi-psychopaths out there who have no business coaching our young, but again I have yet enough faith in the decency of most people involved with youth sports, to believe those nuts are a  small minority. 
In fact from my own experience with youth programs, I always got the impression that it was tiger sport parents that soured their youngsters on a particular sport.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Berwyn Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Jun 19 2019 at 2:04pm
There is an argument that boys & girls have similar physical & psychological abilities until age 12. The solution would be to sign up girls for youth wrestling at the same age boys start. Once they hit middle school seperate boy girl teams, practices & competitions. AKA 7th grade.

It's more important for total involvement for both boys & girls at a young age regardless of what style wrestlers are taught at the youth levels. The freestyle folkstyle debate is not the top priority IMHO.

Edited by Berwyn - Jun 19 2019 at 4:31pm
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